Motivating and Improving Uncertainty Assessment in Ecosystem Services Modeling to Inform Decisions

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Award Year: 
Principal Investigator: 
Benjamin Bryant, Stanford University
Perrine Hamel, Stanford University
Associated Program: 

Ecosystem services (ES) assessments are proliferating, and they are increasingly being considered in policy and other forms of decision making such as conservation prioritization and corporate accounting. At the same time, the treatment of uncertainty in ES assessments is often wanting, in part because ES assessment presents numerous practical challenges for integrative modeling that ES analysts may not have experience tackling. The objective for the workshop is to improve the uptake of uncertainty analysis in ecosystem services (ES) assessments. The workshop will bring together a cross- disciplinary group of researchers and practitioners to synthesize their past successes and lingering challenges when assessing uncertainty in ES studies. The specific goals are to i) identify and improve the accessibility of the existing tools and approaches to uncertainty assessment that can be directly applied to ES studies - but which may not be widely known within the ES modeling community; ii) explore ways to cultivate demand for uncertainty assessment in ES studies, including the potential role for best practices or “standards,” and iii) identify future research and tool development necessary to overcome remaining barriers.

Douglas Lipton, NOAA
Diana Lane, Abt Associates
Lydia Olander, Duke University
Kenneth Bagstad, USGS
Anthony Jakeman, Australian National University
Kirsten Oleson, University of Hawaii, Manoa
Juan Lozano, Independent consultant
Simon Willcock, University of Southampton and Scotland's Rural College
Catharina Schulp, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam
Stephen Posner, COMPASS and University of Vermont
Nirmal Bhagabati, WWF
Michelle Lim, Griffith University
Guillermo Mendoza, IWR- USACE
Jae Chung, US Army Corps of Engineers
Jefferson Gómez, CIAT
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