There are widespread concerns that current trends in population and resource-use are unsustainable, but the possibilities of an overshoot and collapse remain unclear and controversial. Collapses have occurred frequently in the past five thousand years, and are often followed by centuries of economic, intellectual, and population decline. Many different natural and social phenomena have been invoked to explain specic collapses, but a general explanation remains elusive. Two important features seem to appear across societies that have collapsed: (1) Ecological Strain and (2) Economic Stratication.

Part of this seminar will explain the structure of a new model and several simulated scenarios that offer significant implications.

Safa Motesharrei is a PhD candidate in Applied Mathematics/Public Policy at the University of Maryland, College Park.